7月份，宏观经济运行平稳，受去产能、环保等政策措施影响，市场预期持续升高，钢材价格呈明显上升走势，钢铁生产保持高水平。后期钢材价格难以大幅上涨，仍将是波动运行态势。

一、国内市场钢材价格继续上涨，涨幅有所加大

7月末，钢铁协会CSPI中国钢材价格指数为106.49点，环比上升5.46点，升幅为5.40%，较上月加大3.63个百分点;与上年同期相比上升34.40点，升幅为47.72%。(见下图)

CSPI中国钢材价格指数走势图

1、长材、板材价格均继续上升，板材升幅高于长材

7月末，CSPI长材指数为111.77点，环比上升5.04点，升幅为4.72%;CSPI板材指数为103.73点，环比上升5.87点，升幅为6.00%，比长材高1.28个百分点;与去年同期相比，长材指数上升40.22点，升幅为56.21%;板材指数上升29.18点，升幅为39.14%。(见下图、下表)

CSPI国内长材和板材价格指数走势图

CSPI中国钢材价格指数变化情况表

<td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">项目td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">7月末td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">6月末td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">环比升降td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">幅度(%)td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">上年同期td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">同比升降td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">幅度(%)td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">综合指数td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">106.49td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">101.03td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">5.46td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">5.40td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">72.09td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">34.40td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">47.72td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">长材td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">111.77td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">106.73td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">5.04td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">4.72td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">71.55td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">40.22td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">56.21td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">板材td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">103.73td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">97.86td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">5.87td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">6.00td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">74.55td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">29.18td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">39.14td>

2、主要钢材品种价格均有所上升

7月末，在钢铁协会监测的八大钢材品种中，高线和钢筋价格环比由降转升，分别较上月上升203元/吨和160元/吨;角钢、中厚板、热轧卷板、冷轧薄板、镀锌板和无缝钢管价格继续上升，分别环比上升167元/吨、209元/吨、224元/吨、308元/吨、195元/吨和185元/吨。(见下表)

主要钢材品种价格及指数变化情况表

单位：元/吨

<td rowspan="2" style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="151">品种规格td> <td colspan="2" style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="110">7月末td> <td colspan="2" style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="110">6月末td> <td rowspan="2" style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">价格升降td> <td rowspan="2" style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">指数升降td> <td colspan="2" style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="115">升降幅(%)td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">价格td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="56">指数td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">价格td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="56">指数td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">本月td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="60">上月td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="151">高线6.5mmtd> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">3938td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="56">112.91td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">3735td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="56">107.07td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">203td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">5.84td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">5.45td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="60">-2.95td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="151">螺纹钢(钢筋)16mmtd> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">3919td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="56">111.71td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">3759td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="56">107.15td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">160td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">4.56td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">4.26td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="60">-2.79td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="151">角钢5#td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">3957td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="56">111.53td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">3790td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="56">106.81td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">167td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">4.72td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">4.42td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="60">2.45td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="151">中厚板20mmtd> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">3704td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="56">103.79td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">3495td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="56">97.94td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">209td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">5.85td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">5.97td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="60">1.95td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="151">热轧卷板3.0mmtd> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">3927td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="56">102.31td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">3703td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="56">96.49td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">224td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">5.82td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">6.03td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="60">7.14td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="151">冷轧薄板1.0mmtd> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">4365td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="56">92.72td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">4057td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="56">86.18td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">308td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">6.54td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">7.59td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="60">3.81td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="151">镀锌板0.5mmtd> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">5047td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="56">97.66td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">4852td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="56">93.89td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">195td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">3.77td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">4.02td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="60">2.41td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="151">热轧无缝管219*10mmtd> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">4591td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="56">91.73td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">4406td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="56">88.03td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">185td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">3.7td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">4.20td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="60">1.90td>

3、钢材价格呈逐周上行走势

7月份，CSPI国内钢材价格综合指数逐周上行;进入8月份，前两周钢材价格继续上涨，第三周小幅回落。(见下表)

CSPI国内钢材价格综合指数各周变化情况表

<td rowspan="2" style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="79">项目td> <td rowspan="2" style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">6月末td> <td colspan="4" style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="246">7月td> <td colspan="3" style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="189">8月td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="61">第一周td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="61">第二周td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="61">第三周td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="61">第四周td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="63">第一周td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="63">第二周td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="63">第三周td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="79">综合指数td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">101.03td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="61">102.54td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="61">104.32td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="61">106.13td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="61">106.49td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="63">108.26td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="63">113.86td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="63">113.64td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="79">长材指数td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">106.73td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="61">108.19td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="61">110.04td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="61">111.52td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="61">111.77td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="63">113.65td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="63">119.03td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="63">118.99td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="79">板材指数td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="54">97.86td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="61">99.41td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="61">101.26td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="61">103.48td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="61">103.73td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="63">105.55td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="63">111.20td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="63">110.45td>

4、主要区域市场钢材价格涨幅均有所加大

据钢铁协会监测，7月份，全国各区域市场钢材价格均继续上升，且涨幅有所加大。其中：华东地区升幅较大，环比上升6.82%;华北地区升幅较小，环比上升3.89%;东北、中南、西南和西北地区分别环比上升4.62%、5.04%、5.16%和4.80%。(见下表)

CSPI分地区钢材价格指数变化情况表

<td rowspan="2" style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="94">CSPI分地区指数td> <td rowspan="2" style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="95">7月末td> <td rowspan="2" style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="94">6月末td> <td rowspan="2" style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="95">指数升降td> <td colspan="2" style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="189">环比幅度(%)td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="104">本月td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="85">上月td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="94">华北地区td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="95">101.52td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="94">97.72td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="95">3.80td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="104">3.89td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="85">2.46td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="94">东北地区td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="95">104.25td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="94">99.65td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="95">4.60td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="104">4.62td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="85">3.34td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="94">华东地区td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="95">107.64td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="94">100.77td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="95">6.87td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="104">6.82td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="85">1.08td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="94">中南地区td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="95">108.96td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="94">103.73td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="95">5.23td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="104">5.04td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="85">1.69td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="94">西南地区td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="95">108.06td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="94">102.76td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="95">5.30td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="104">5.16td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="85">0.55td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="94">西北地区td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="95">105.02td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="94">100.21td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="95">4.81td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="104">4.80td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="85">1.26td>

二、国内市场钢材价格变化因素分析

7月份，国内市场钢材需求基本保持平稳。但受去产能、环保限产等政策预期影响，钢材价格出现较大幅度上涨。

1、主要用钢行业保持增长，钢材需求基本平稳

据国家统计局数据，1-7月份，全国固定资产投资(不含农户)同比增长8.3%。其中基础设施投资同比增长20.9%;全国房地产开发投资同比增长7.9%。其中房屋新开工面积同比增长8.0%;7月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.4%。从上述情况看，用钢行业仍保持增长，钢材需求保持平稳。

2、去产能及环保政策预期叠加拉动钢材价格上涨

为了巩固去产能、清除“地条钢”成果，7月29日，李克强总理要求取缔“地条钢”、化解过剩产能工作要坚定不移地推进，防止死灰复燃;7月31日，张高丽副总理要求全力做好秋冬季大气污染防治工作，制定错峰停产限产方案。上述信息再叠加今年3月份出台的“2+26”城市治理大气污染要求，使市场对后市预期较高，拉动钢材价格上涨。

3、铁矿石等原燃材料价格上涨，对钢价有一定的支撑作用

据钢铁协会监测，7月末，CIOPI进口铁矿石价格为71.75美元/吨，环比上涨9.34美元/吨，涨幅为14.97%，较上月加大3.78个百分点;国产铁精矿、炼焦煤和冶金焦价格均由降转升，分别环比上涨28元/吨、40元/吨和111元/吨，涨幅分别为4.91%、3.13%和6.62%;废钢价格连续第二个月上涨，环比增幅为4.75%。钢材价格上涨拉动铁矿石等原燃材料价格上涨，反过来又对钢价有一定的支撑作用。(见下表)

主要原燃材料价格变化情况表

<td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="130">项目td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="64">单位td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="94">7月末td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="97">6月末td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="97">环比升降td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="99">升降幅度%td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="130">国产铁精矿td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="64">元/吨td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="94">598td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="97">570td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="97">28td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="99">4.91td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="130">CIOPI进口矿td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="64">美元/吨td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="94">71.75td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="97">62.41td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="97">9.34td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="99">14.97td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="130">炼焦煤td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="64">元/吨td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="94">1320td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="97">1280td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="97">40td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="99">3.13td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="130">冶金焦td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="64">元/吨td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="94">1789td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="97">1678td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="97">111td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="99">6.62td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="130">废钢td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="64">元/吨td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="94">1677td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="97">1601td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="97">76td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="99">4.75td>

三、国际市场钢材价格由降转升

7月，CRU国际钢材综合价格指数为162.5点，环比上升7.4点，升幅为4.8%，环比由降转升;同比上升20.7点，升幅为14.6%。(见下图)

CRU国际钢材综合价格指数走势图

CRU国际钢材价格指数变化表

<td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="75">项目td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">7月td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">6月td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">环比升降td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">升降幅%td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">上年同期td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">同比升降td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">升降幅%td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="75">钢材综合td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">162.5td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">155.1td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">7.4td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">4.8td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">141.8td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">20.7td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">14.6td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="75">长材td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">167.3td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">158.4td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">8.9td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">5.6td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">139.4td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">27.9td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">20.0td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="75">板材td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">160.1td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">153.4td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">6.7td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">4.4td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">143.0td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">17.1td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">12.0td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="75">北美市场td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">172.3td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">166.7td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">5.6td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">3.4td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">172.6td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">-0.3td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">-0.2td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="75">欧洲市场td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">168.8td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">171.9td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">-3.1td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">-1.8td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">157.2td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">11.6td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">7.4td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="75">亚洲市场td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">153.2td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">138.9td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">14.3td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">10.3td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">115.2td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">38.0td> <td style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" width="73">33.0td>

1、长、板材价格均由降转升，板材升幅低于长材

7月，CRU长材指数为167.3点，环比上升8.9点，升幅为5.6%，环比由降转升;CRU板材指数为160.1点，环比上升6.7点，升幅为4.4%，环比由降转升，比长材升幅低1.2个百分点;与上年同期相比，CRU长材指数上升27.9点，升幅为20.0%;CRU板材指数上升17.1点，升幅为12.0%。(见下图)

CRU国际长材和板材价格指数走势图